Understanding Easy Expert

The Market Trader program is designed as a stock market analyzing and predicting software. The core idea of this program assumes the correlation between astrological indicators (i.e., astrological objects) and stock markets' behavior. Easy Expert is one of the windows of the program designed for fast and qualitative analysis of price data (as well as any time series data). It takes you just a few minutes to understand how every single astrological event effects the market. We recommend Easy Expert for quick evaluation and planning the buy/sell strategy. Information received through other Market Trader's parts does not contradict to Easy Expert's output, it only can be deeper or more detailed. Easy Expert is a helpful tool for fellow astrologers and stock market gamblers who just started to apply astrology 

GETTING STARTED

As any other main block of the Market Trader program, Easy Expert starts from the choice of data that we will analyze. As an example, we choose Apple Computer stock chart.  

Download Apple Computer's data. Press "Ease Expert" button. The "Easy Expert" window will be displayed:    

The next step is to define what astrological events (or astrological indicators) may have some effect to this particular type of security. In other words, we need to define a model for this research project. The program gives you a choice between a list of standard astrological events and a possibility to define your own event. Here "Standard" stands for a list of standard astrological events, or events well known and described in astrological literature. The second choice, i.e. "Super Search", will connect you with Astrological Language (AL) block of the program. There you can define any astrological event or combination of events that you are capable to imagine. You can find an information on Astrological Language here.

Very Important Note: Those who are practicing astrological approach to financial markets have their own understanding what events might have some influence for this particular market. They select events for analysis rather easily. Those who have no clues as well as those who started to study financial astrology recently should check couple event from the list. In any case, when you use Easy Expert, you decide on your own what events should be considered; the program does not give you any hints.

We will work with standard astrological events. The list includes events like planets' position, ingress into signs, aspects between transit and/or natal planets, and much more.

Let's choose one of the events from the list. For example, we check "TRANS/TRANS Planets Aspect culmination (no movement)". It means that we will study culminations of all aspects between any two transiting planets without taking into account what type of movement those two planets are involved in. If we press "Calculate" button, the program starts to calculate all aspects' culminations within the selected interval and then select aspects' culminations between two transits only. After this calculation, the program will display information like this:; it means that, for our data, aspects between transit planets culminated 225 times, price change was observed in 112 times. In other words, our chosen event (culmination of the aspect between two transit planets) was not unusual during the historic period within which we observed our data (i.e., price of Apple Computers' shares) and coincided with price change. How does this coincidence work, are there any patterns? What should we do to get this answer?

The program gives us a hint; a :message on the main screen says:

Critical density is a special parameter to set a maximum amount of arrows that might be seen on the screen. Further we tell more about those arrows.

So, we push button; it allows us to set the mouse in "Magnify" mode. Dragging the mouse, we select a small piece of price chart on the main screen:

You can see red and blue arrows on the bottom part of the screen. These arrows represent results of Easy Expert analysis. For our example, all these arrows show how aspects hit the stock. 

As you remember, the program has analyzed 225 aspects and found that 112 of them have affected the price. The program studies how the price is changing around the culmination point of every aspect  between transit planets.  Look at the diagram:

This is the study of the opposition between transit Venus and transit Mars. The culmination point is marked by the central line. You can see that the stock price started to go down 4 days before the culmination of this aspect. The process stopped at 2 days before the culmination. The aspect has happened 7 times; going down took place 6 times; only 1 time this was not true (the price went up). Exactly at the day of culmination, the price started going up, for 2 days after the culmination. It happened 7 times from 7. Thus, this one particular aspect coincides with two different price movements. There is evidence that 4 days before the culmination of the aspects the price is more likely going down, and the price will go up during 2 days after the culmination. Both these price movements are shown on the upper diagram, together with other red and blue arrows. Red arrows show the price moving up, blue ones show the price going down. The thicker the arrow is, the stronger is the influence.

You might want to consider another type of astrological events. In this case, you should choose the second type of astrological events in the "Standard" list. The program displays the results over the previous ones. This way you can add as many types of events from the list as you wish. Their effect will be displayed as arrows of different colour and thickness.

During our studies, we observed many different price patterns. Let's discuss some of them.

Pure UP pattern

It is a pattern that looks something like this: . It means that the price is more likely going up, because we have two bold red arrows (strong up) preceded by one thin red (weak up) and one thin blue arrow (weak down) for this period.

The price chart for this pattern looks like this:

Pure DOWN pattern

The pattern type   means the strong possibility of down movement for the price: one bold blue arrow (strong down) and three thin blue arrows (weak down). 

The price chart looks like this:

Mixed pattern

Another pattern   means that different aspects with different influence are presented. We cannot tell exactly what happens to the price. One of the possibilities is that the stock will not move at all or will make small up and down movements around some price level. The corresponding price chart looks like this:

Risky up pattern

In examples before we discussed Red/Blue (Up/Down) arrows with different grade of influence. If the influence is strong, the program displays a bold arrow; if it weak,  the arrow will be thin. But there are two more different types of arrows; they show us risky patterns.

Look at this dotted red arrow:

This arrow means risky up movement. Statistically, this pattern means the up price movement, but sometimes the price goes down, and this downward movement is extremely strong. Let's consider this aspect in details.

As an example, let's take a conjunction of transit Mercury and transit Saturn. Here are results of simple statistics for this aspect:

This aspect has happened 23 times. The program studied price behavior one day before the culmination of this aspect and one day after (). It has found that the price went up 17 times and went down 6 times (). The efficiency of this aspect as an upward cause is 73.9% (which sounds very good). But - 6 downward movements were so strong that the average price went down. Look at the "Efficiency Test" diagram for this aspect:

The arrow connecting points "-1" and "+1" (the day before the culmination and the day after the culmination) goes down (i.e., the average price goes down). Actually, there were two extremely strong downward movements between those 6 (the price dropped on 5% and 3%). So, we can use risky points with caution. 

Risky down pattern

It is dotted blue arrow::

 I guess the meaning is quite obvious: mostly the price goes down, but sometimes we should expect strong upward movements.

Black Risky pattern

There is one more kind of arrows in the program - black dotted ones:

This kind of arrows marks a very risky point with a strong possibility to change direction of the price movement. Usually, the price goes in one direction mostly; opposite movements are rather rare though extremely strong.

What might be a meaning of Risky pattern? 

We have an assumption (based on our research) that high density of risky arrow points is an indicator of trend changes. Here is the example:

Dotted arrows coincide with the points where the actual price changes its trend. This is our hypothesis; it needs to be researched more.

Getting started for advanced

After downloading the data, open "Easy Expert" window. The possibility to work with the standard list of astrological events is a default feature:

You can see that option checked. It means that we can choose any event from the list on the right panel: .

It is the way we recommend for novices in the financial astrology or for the case when the researcher deals with a totally new stock.

More experienced researchers might work with the events that are not in this list. Or they might find a procedure of adding different types of events one by one too tiresome. In this case, we recommend to check "Super Search" and uncheck "Standard" option by double clicking on this item 

Note: You can use both possibilities at the same time, i.e., check both options. The program will take chosen types of events from the "Standard" list and add newly created through "Super Search" events.

After activating the "Super Search" option, the controls to create astrological events are ready to use: .

The main idea behind this is "Astrological Language" (AL), as we have mentioned above. Astrological Language is a very powerful feature; it is designed as a possibility to write any astrological event we are known of, combine them in any possible way (as we can see it in actual astrological charts) and use for any kind of research later. You can create any events you want and look how these events hit the stock market. 

Press button. It runs the window that helps us to create the events list. Other controls allow to use previously created models (the *.hyp files) and to clear out the list (the last one).

To continue with the aspects, let's imagine that we want to investigate the planetary pictures aspects. It differs from the type we have discussed above: it was a research on culminations of any aspects between two transiting planets. Now we investigate culminations of any conjunctions (versus of all aspects) between transit planetary pictures (versus of a planet) and any transit planet. For example, combinations like transit Mercury + Venus - Mars conjunction to transit Sun. To do it, go to "Planetary Picture Aspects" tab, choose the involved planets and types of aspects and press "Add to List" button:

(Note: we will discuss in detail all issues related to Astrological Language and Super Search models later. Now you can find necessary information in the documentation that you have got together with the program or in some publications that you can find on our website www.alphee.com).

In a moment the program creates the list consisting of 1008 events. Press "OK", and all these 1008 events are ready for "Easy Expert" analysis. But there is one restriction. 

Using "Easy Expert" you can analyze the instantaneous events ONLY, i.e., events that happen in some particular moment of time and don't have any time longevity. For example, you can use "Easy Expert" to investigate aspects' culmination (the exact time when some aspect between two planets happens). But this aspect had some longevity defined by its orb; it  had begun at some moment in the past, was getting closer to culmination, culminated (this is the point we can use "Easy Expert"), then planets started to depart, and the aspect ceased to exist. You can use "Easy Expert" to investigate the moments when planets are entering (or ingressing) some Zodiac sign, but you can not use it to investigate the process when planets actually are in this sign.

Astrological Language allows us to take into consideration astonomical events as well. For example, aspects are one of the basics of astrology. But what they are in reality? They mark some special meanings of a physical phenomena. Physicists and astronomers know this phenomena as an angle between two bodies moving in space. I.e., aspects are part of this phenomena. That is the reason why we have two different tabs in the Super Search module of the program - "Aspects" and "Angle Between (Value)":

Here you can work with any angle between planets or create its Sine/Cosine curves:

 It is nothing special but numeric value; sometimes it might give interesting results when we use it in the "Black Box Expert" (one more module of the program that we are planning to discuss later). But we can not use such type of events in "Easy Expert" window as these events have time longevity. 

When the list of events is created, do everything described earlier: choose the type of events that you consider as hitting this market; press the "Calculate" button and study red and blue arrows.

How to interpret the results of Easy Expert analysis

The "Easy Expert" output looks like a collection of arrows. It is a very useful thing because now you can see how each aspect hits the stock and make your decision. It is extremely good tool to see the influence of a huge number of aspects at one diagram. The more is the density of those arrows, the higher is a possibility that we can predict market movements. However, it is not enough to be sure that we can tell that some astrological events coincide with market movements. It is much more important know what a phenomena lies behind each arrow. 

It is easy to do:

Step 1) Go to the "Expert Results" tab

Step 2) Press there  button. It makes Easy Expert active

Step 3) On the main screen, click the mouse at the starting point of the arrow.

Steps 2 and 3 are shown at the picture below:

Right after clicking the mouse on the main screen, the information in the "Easy Expert" window will be updated according to the arrow that you have chosen on the main screen. In the example above, the program points out that the chosen arrow corresponds to the transit Sun squaring transit Mars: . The efficiency of this aspect is 83.3%, i.e. we have observed that the price went up 15 times and down 3 times:.. We compare the price of the second day after culmination with the price next day after culmination: . We can get general information about this aspect from the efficiency test for it (it is also displayed in the "Easy Expert" window):

We can consider not all aspects hitting this market, but most effective ones. There is a filter in this window where we can define a criteria for selection. In our example, the program displays only those aspects that hit the stock market with effectiveness 72% and more: . Practically, it means that the program displays only those events for which we can assume something like this: for every 100 aspects observed,   the price is going up (down) at least 72 times while it might go down (up) not more than 28 times. Let's increase this value up to 80%:

The program displays only those aspects that have effectiveness 80% and more, i.e. the most important aspects. As you can see, there are just a few arrows on the screen (compare this to the screen before setting the filter). To see more aspects or all aspects, you should decrease this value.

Options

There some additional options in Easy Expert window:

- "Interval 5 before/after culmination" - here we define the length of time span we analyze. In this example we analyze the time interval of 10 days (5 before an 5 after culmination)

- "Min Effect 65%" - this option allows you to exclude not important events.

- "This aspect takes place at least 5 times" - allows to exclude rare aspects. To get information about the aspect, it should appear itself at least 3 times.

- "Max length of transaction 3 ticks" - it defines the maximum length of the arrows. For example, if we set it as 1, the length of the arrows will be 1 day only: buy/sell today-> sell/buy tomorrow. If we set it as 3, the program will show arrows with the length 1, 2, and 3 days.

"Transit objects" button helps to set objects involved in the aspect. 

How to make a prediction

The idea in brief is very simple: assuming that some astrological (or astronomical, or some other events) coincide with some particular market movements, we need to find moments in future when those events will happen again. At these moments, we can expect that the market will repeat the same movement. So, the program takes the data, learns all coincidences between astrological events (that we choose as effective ones), tests them, and makes a prediction. So, before the actual prediction, the program needs to study our data.

It is very important to understand that the program divides the interval with available for analysis data on two parts. 

Blue interval is optimizing (learning) interval. We do statistical research of the data and calculate the efficiency of the events on THIS interval. The red interval is necessary to understand how our model works. Here we test our model, and this interval is called testing (or Back Testing) interval. It is a very important thing, and let me repeat it again: for both intervals we use one set of data. We divide data on two parts; first one serves as a laboratory where we try to find events that correspond to market movements; the second one is a testing area. The same approach is applied to other parts of the program such as Neural Net or Black Box.

Suppose we have found a good model. This model gives us a good result (i.e., good Back Testing). Now it is the time to make the real forecast. Here is the routine:

Step 1): Press button. Thus we expand the optimizing (learning) interval to the last price point. In other words, after testing the model, we add the testing interval's data to the data of the optimizing interval:

Step 2): Now we can use ALL price points and do the real prediction. Recalculate the new data set (the "Calculate" button in the "Easy Expert" window). It is quite possible that the program will show slightly different results. It is OK. It happens because we use the additional price points; that corrects a final result. The red interval now is "terra incognita". We have no price points here. It is the field for a real prediction. 

(When you will use Neural Net Expert or Black Box Expert, you should also optimize the model once again to adjust this model for the new price points.

Some Useful Tricks

In the previous example, we have analyzed 225 aspects. The program (in the "Easy Expert" window) has found only 112 of them as having strong enough influence on the stock (minimum 65%): . Sometimes it is interesting to get as more details about these events as possible. To see them one by one, use the "SuperSearch" module of the program. How we can do it? Put these events into the clipboard pressing button. Then activate "SuperSearch" tab: . 

There is the "Fast View" button there. It runs the Fast View window that allows to create SuperSearch model for all aspects from the clipboard:

This feature (i.e., transfer Easy Expert findings to SuperSearch) might be useful when you consider some Easy Expert results important enough to use in the future. (For example, you have found a combination of events that might be relevant to some group of stocks researched - like stocks of all software producing companies, or live cattle, or stocks of some food chains, etc.). When you transfer Easy Expert results to SuperSearch module, you can save them there as a model and use later, or for other stocks.

Other features are designed to make the process of work with Easy Expert window more comfortable. When you run this window, the Easy Expert panel appears in the main screen:.

If you uncheck here the "use" option, the program will not display arrows at all. 

If you push button, the program will display "Easy Expert" arrows together with price chart:

If you press button, the "Easy Expert" window will be displayed in front of other windows of the program. 

The "circle" is useful when we have more than one "Easy Expert" window running. For example,  two "Easy Expert" windows have been created: one to analyze aspects, another one to analyze middle points. The results of these two windows will look like:

Now we have two open windows with the lists of events and two diagrams with arrows. How do we know what window relates to each of the diagram? What will we do having 5 open windows? We need to remember only one thing: the order of the diagrams is the same as the order of the "Easy Expert" panels ( ). When we push the button on the related panel, we will display the related window in front of the others.

I hope that I have touched all major issues concerning to "Easy Expert" window. If you have any questions - feel free to ask me!

Changes in patch 4 June 2003 y

We added some small things to Easy Expert window:

1)   

Here we define the maximum and minimum arrow length. For this example setting, the program will analyze such arrows: 1 day length,2 days length and 3 days length. You can set  the Min to 3, and the program will analyze 3 days length arrows only.

2) We changed the algorithm to display arrows. Let's demonstrate you how to use it.. For example, we set

The program will display all arrows with efficiency 70%. Let's consider one aspect only (Moon conj. Venus):

As you see, this aspect produces two arrows: a) 2 before-> 1 after , 9 up/3 down Efficiency=75% - the program will display this aspect, because the efficiency is bigger than 70%.

b) 4 after->5 after, 8 down/4 up Efficiency=66% - the program will not display this aspect (in the previous release, the program displayed it in any case).

3)We changed the presentation of the arrows:

You see that some arrows are connected by red/blue triangle line like this: or this . These lines connect the arrows generated by  the same aspect.

For example, the transit Sun conj. Mercury  aspect generates two arrows. Look ar the efficiency test: . 

The program marks these arrows this way:

- small red arrows.

If we have the efficiency test looking like , these arrows are away from each other on three days. We connect these arrows using a red triangle.

If we have arrows like this:  we connect these arrows using blue triangle

4) Other options:

"Draw Risky arrows only" - if you want to display the risky points only, check this option.

"Draw Paired arrows only" -There are two kinds of arrows: paired and single. The example we analyzed above ises paired arrows, but sometimes aspect produces only one arrow like this: If you want to display paired arrows only check this option.

"Connect Paired arrows" - you can connect paired arrows.

Difficult Questions

In Easy Expert window, there is a button . Press it:

We will try to explain what this window is for. Here is one practical example. Let's say, we have analyzed some stock and got this result:

It sounds like : "If we compare the price 4 days before culmination with the price 3 days before culmination, the price goes up 5 times of 5". But what price points should we use? 

Look at the picture above. The blue vertical line marks a time point "4 days before culmination". Another vertical line (a red one) represents "3 days before culmination". There is no problem if these two lines cross our price points. The difficulty arises when it does not happen. So, this window allows us to set the algorithm to calculate the price points that correspond to each moment. There are 3 possibilities there:

a) - we can take the nearest point before the vertical line

b) - we can take the nearest point after the vertical line

c) We can take the nearest price point.

Besides, for each price point, we can use Close or Open price. Thus, we have 6 possibilities to calculate the price point for any particular moment. The dialog window above allows to define this algorithm.

Look at this example:

The "buy/sell" arrow starts in the point A. Here  we have: . It means that we are looking for the nearest price point before this point A and use Close.

This arrow ends at the point B where  we have: . We look for the nearest price point after the point B and use Open.