Here are two different Annual cycles. Red - calculated for Dow from 1885 taking into account the periods when Republicans have been in power, i.e. Republican Annual cycle. The same way I calculated Democrat Annual cycle - blue line.

 

 

As you see they are different. I marked the moments when Dow switched from one to another cycle.

 

Speaking about future forecast, we can see three possible scenarios:

 

 

Republican - deep drop in September and Christmas rally from October.

Democrat - steady down till Christmas

%X scenario - something different

 

Sergey Tarasov.